Hybrid warfare today is societal in scope in terms of intended targets and those states that engage in it. GZ campaigns are likely to be more common and potentially dangerous in the future, and the United States must improve its capacity to resist them. They included guerilla warfare, innovative use of technology and effective information campaigning. For example, NATO’s preoccupation with military affairs and militarization strategies in the Baltic region has escalated tensions with Russia while doing little to tackle the conflict’s political dimensions, such as minority rights protection. The United States is beginning to recognize how gray zone competitors operate. — In the modern post-Cold War world, however, global security and stability have become the bedrocks of global commerce and the free movement of people, goods and ideas across international boundaries. AP Photo/Max Vetrov, Nathan Freier, Christopher Compton and Tobin Magsig. The resistance of grey-zone conflicts to resolution and the consistent inability of international institutions to influence state participants’ behaviour, and their aid to sub-state actors, support the long-standing realist claim that security can ultimately be promoted by, and for, individual states. Moreover, development assistance can sometimes be an effective inducement to co-operations and an instrument of influence – and of “winning the narrative.”. First, DoD should develop a common, compelling, and adaptive strategic picture of the range of gray zone threats and their associated hazards.

The need will be not only for day-to-day operational intelligence of both military and political action – but also to understand the dynamics of the nation and region in which the conflict is occurring, the character of the conflict, and the perspectives of adversaries, partners, and others with an interest in, or a potential for, affecting the course of events – and to identify in advance situations in which the United States is likely to have to deal with GZ operations.

Such a planning structure will establish an organization and management template for GZ operations. The United States developed decades of experience in countering these types of activities during the Cold War. ET. Research Handbook on Mediating International Crises.

Routledge. The Department of State should consider having such an organization support a whole of government assessment of GZ activity. Unique characteristics of gray zone conflict; New policy options and operational concepts available to the United States to seek to de-escalate a gray zone conflict when one is underway; Actions or capabilities that could dissuade or deter states from engaging in gray zone conflict to advance their policy goals; The current state of analysis of gray zone conflict as it relates to dissuasion, deterrence, and de-escalation, and gaps in this work. Assessing possible new “GZ-specific” norms – the establishment of which would be helpful in meeting GZ challenges because they are adapted to the specific problem of GZ operations. Amb. Available at https://theconversation.com/fewer-diplomatsmore-armed-force-defines-us-leadership-today-92890, Duffy-Toft, M. 2018b. But hybrid warfare, with its various forms, is here to stay due to its obvious benefits to the actor employing it: deniability and exploiting the legal grey zone. News, analysis, and ideas driving the future of U.S. defense: straight to your inbox.

I request that you complete the study in 140 days. Countering GZ attacks successfully places a heavy demand on intelligence. There is a case for integrating a strong civilian management element with the military’s regional CCMD structure, because of the need for close coordination between the two lines of effort.[. These would include creating stand-by interagency “task forces” with linked communications, access to resources, agreed detailing/funding mechanisms, training and exercise/simulation programs, and designated personnel. Identifying the funding mechanisms that exist for these activities and how, by legislative or regulatory action, they can be made more flexible without losing accountability. Understanding of the ways in which application of the Law of Armed Conflict and other recognized international laws and norms would delegitimize GZ tactics. By continuing to use this site, you agree to our use of cookies. Countries like China and Russia increasingly use non-military means to achieve their objectives. Other tactics include the exploitation of international institutions to advance activities or delay censure of them.

These actions, which seek to gain advantage without provoking a conventional military response, are often difficult for free-market democracies to counter. Swansea, Swansea [Abertawe GB-ATA], Aston Talks: Engineering 21st century logistics systems: a cultural perspective - online public lecture by Professor Ed Sweeney Kyle Matthews), In this paper we examine the involvement of non-state actors in grey-zone conflict, their relationship to hybrid warfare and the implications therein for conflict management. Birmingham, Birmingham, Children's Half-Term Lecture (online): Cats, Bats, and Pointed Hats - Halloween and the history of witchcraft Russia’s approach to Ukraine is an example of this form of warfare. Conventional force against an opponent would be more likely incorporated in cases of asymmetric conflict in which the cost of applying conventional techniques against a weaker opponent is much lower. James Fergusson), WASHINGTON, MEMORANDUM FOR THE CHAIRMAN, INTERNATIONAL  Making sense of our complex world.

This is because there is no common perception of the nature, character, or hazard associated with the gray zone or its individual threats and challenges; because the U.S. and its partners perceive risks differently than their principal gray zone adversaries and competitors; and because there is neither an animating grand strategy nor a “campaign-like” charter guiding U.S. and allied efforts against specific gray zone challenges. To remedy the planning problems, the United States should establish, with cross-government participation and NSC oversight, an “on-the-shelf” structure for detailed planning and conducting rapid – and enduring and coordinated – counter-GZ operations.

help Canadians better understand their role in the international arena. However, as John Raine argues, the ever widening list of actions viewed as belligerent increases the likelihood of escalation. Hon. Preparation for and support of GZ defense should be a high priority for U.S. intelligence. Dr. Amy Sands At the single-country level the United States should make the Country Team – augmented as necessary to include representatives of all involved agencies – the structure for in-country coordination and management. Instead there should be an effective civilian-led planning and management structure for U.S. counter-GZ activities – with particular attention to cyber and other information issues – within a centrally determined strategy.

The modern concept of hybrid warfare emerged from American military strategic studies, which have been influenced by the realization that since 9/11 – and following the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war – the conflicts in which the U.S. and its allies are involved have become increasingly complex with regard to the number and kind of belligerent… Thus, with more information regarding the intentions of opponents and their non-state proxies, parties in conflict generally have a clearer outline of their possible contract space and may negotiate a settlement while forgoing the costs of fighting. When China builds military outposts in international waters or when Russia uses non-uniformed soldiers to invade and attack a sovereign neighbor, it erodes confidence in a rules-based system. The concepts of “hybrid warfare” and the “grey zone” arguably build on longstanding military strategies. However, the very breadth of instruments used in most GZ operations, and their existence in a “gray zone” between normal competition and open conflict, seem likely to make it difficult to find rules that can reasonably be applied universally (or even be acceptable to the United States given that the United States sometimes employ GZ tactics – such as use of covert action) and that will likely also be featured in any GZ operations against U.S. interests. — Examples include Russia’s disinformation campaigns against societies in the West, its use of cyber activities to threaten western businesses, and its use of proxy forces to annex territory and foment civil war in Ukraine. (In general, our preference, based on the less than satisfactory experience with separate civilian and military chains of command, is for integration of the civilian and military regional structures, and for giving the Department of State the leadership civilian assignment in whatever structure is used.) Ms. Sita Sonty will serve as the Executive Secretary for the study and Chris Herrick will represent the ISAB Executive Directorate. For example, the issue of offensive cyber-operations by states and non-state entities has created a conundrum regarding their legality in relation to UN self-defence provisions, the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC) and norms regarding pre-emptive operations. It has been argued that non-democracies are more readily disposed to grey-zone conflict because they are less constrained and have more centralized, procedurally flexible decision-making structures than their more democratic, consensus-building counterparts. This is a big change — so big it should be chartered under a common U.S. government vision emanating first from the White House. Accordingly, the NSC should conduct broad planning for GZ operations and should be the entity to coordinate among agencies. We hope the Office of the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security will consider recommending these additional lines of inquiry to the appropriate officials at a later date. Complete reliance on unconventional tools, like special operations forces, is likely to be less effective at fully and rapidly compelling relatively strong opponent(s) into specific avenues of desired action. New York: Elgar. U.S. actions are unlikely to deter, unless they also present heightened prospect of defeat, not just punishment. And because they feature the ambiguity associated with the grey zone, they are well suited to achieve political outcomes without resorting to traditional conflict. Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1N 5S6, Phone: (613) 288-2529 This lessons learned effort should be government wide, but the Department of State – which does not have a strong “after action/lessons learned” system – should put more emphasis on this task. Effectiveness requires people with a range of skills, and training and preparation to work in hostile environments. A complicated issue associated with this is the virtual intrusion by non-state groups, the composition of which may be defined, and therefore protected, as civilians under the Geneva Conventions of 1949 Article 51 (3) additional Protocol I. The report examines the nature of gray zone conflicts as well as the strategic and organizational challenges they pose to the Department of State and broader U.S. government. As Senator Reynolds and General Campbell highlight, activities in the information domain are a serious threat to our national interests. The Institute aims to demonstrate to Canadians the importance of comprehensive foreign, defence and trade policies which both express our values and represent our interests. gray-zone conflict.